Equity Portfolio Breakdown
% Value: Value as % of my portfolio
% Cost: Cost as a % of my total cost invested into equities
This table simply visualises the divergence between my investment thesis and the current market expectations of the company. No hard rule on % cost allocation for stocks yet, nor a threshold where I will trim them.
Equity Portfolio Performance
Historical Portfolio Returns (top); Cumulative Portfolio Returns (bottom) - Since new brokerage.
Monthly Portfolio Returns
CAGR Performance
Note: CAGR for my portfolio is calculated as:
(market value of portfolio including cash / total cost) - 1
The CAGR returns are compared in the above table instead.
Crypto Portfolio Performance
* Charts start from end of November 2020 when I started recording my crypto portfolio. Summarizing:
2020 performance: 2.7x-ed my portfolio
2021 performance: 5.5x-ed my 2020 portfolio
Lifetime performance: 5.88x my cost
Lifetime result:
- Achieved 1.62x of BTC performance (5.88/4.05)
- Achieved 0.48x of ETH performance (5.88/12.35)
Net worth growth
If there’s only one metric that you can apply to your financial life, I believe that would be net worth. If you’re investing, perhaps under 5% of your gross income for investments, it’s a little hard (compounding considered) to eventually make a dent in your net worth.
To read this chart:
I’ve received ~21x my Jul 2019 net worth, in terms of income / bonus.
I’ve made my money work, and my net worth now is ~16.8x my Jul 2019 net worth.
I’ve accumulated savings of 7.1x my Jul 2019 net worth.
Red line is an extreme example; Anywhere between grey and red is acceptable, since you’re supposed to compound your savings, and not your income (i.e. you don’t spend anything). Onwards and upwards!
Thank you for reading my monthly journal of my portfolio. I keep it very real and authentic because nobody can buy the bottom and sell the top. Life is full of mistakes and writing this helps me identify what went wrong and how I can improve. Besides investment I also talk about my life (also a journey) as I live through it.
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Portfolio Commentary (Crypto + Stocks)
I’ll keep my article very light this month, as I’m away on a overseas trip (courtesy of the Singapore Armed Forces) from the 20th Aug to 1st Sep. Hard to keep tabs on the market while I’m away, since I’ve no access to my laptop (which is where I do most of my trades). I think by the time I’m leaving, perhaps another 1 or 2 companies under my portfolio will have reported earnings, and I’ll have to review them when I come back (along with all the backlogged work I’ll have accumulated).
Markets seemed to have stalled a little bit, even though everybody is talking about 2% tru-flation, or when the Fed is going to start lowering rates (which is ~ 3-6 months after the real bull market officially starts). In both the 2 circles of crypto and stocks, people I follow generate quote ~2025 as “the year”, in that the market cycle since 2021 would likely have ran its course, and a new cycle would begin with fresh entrants, especially since the Fed is thinking of lowering rates from 2024 onwards, which we all know leads to an ‘up-only’ scenario, as we march towards consistent YoY GDP growth again. I’m of a similar view, though it feels too consensus, like too many people are feeling this way, and the markets show signs of chasing at times, with FinTwit darlings like Datadog and Cloudflare rising considerably in the past quarter.
Personally, I think the confluence of business growth, along the easing of financial conditions, will all but ensure a repeat of the 2020-2021 cycle, where new entrants chase and FOMO after certain ‘gems’ only to discover that they’ll have bought the top of the next cycle. Bagholders, we call ‘em.
It’s also clear that there’s no right or wrong answer; what matters is your long-term portfolio CAGR %. The risk you take is subjective, and not really important, because what mattered is that you survived through all that. If you made it through to the other side (e.g. 25 years at x% CAGR), I’m sure future you would be all smiles.
With the backdrop set, I’ll be consistently deploying money into stocks and crypto, with a view of taking profits at the end of next year or perhaps mid-2025.
You know what’s after summer right? Fall.
Let’s hope prices don’t do the same.
Earnings results
Cloudflare
Delivered Non-GAAP operating profit for the 4th quarter, whilst outperforming on FCF, indicating sustainability of their operations. DBNER down again to 115% though management says it’ll pick up in the coming quarter since it’s lagging and doesn’t account for spend expansions from customers in the current quarter. They also see marked improvements in average sales, after reviewing the performances of their sales force; Sales Cycles went back to where they was (normal), and ACV bookings hit a new high. Their win rates appear to be commendable, with more and more customer wins cited adopting their Zero Trust product.
Their Act 3 products are also gaining steam, with Workers reaching 10m active applications, up 250% 2 quarters ago. R2 now storing 13 PB of data, up 85% QoQ, with 44k distinct paying customers. Good news with Act 3 is that Cloudflare is able to geofence data within a region, and with ~280 PoP spread out over almost all cities, it is almost certainly more compliant with PDPA laws than e.g. hyperscalers. The company also made a case for AI inference at the edge, which I think is a valid use case, and would like to see them try and push more GTM resources here.
Datadog
Numbers tell one story, while the management tells another. This quarter is the slowest net adds in both customers and large customers, though CEO tells us that they’re still happy with the numbers (i.e. avg rev land) of large customers. New logo bookings 2nd largest quarter, which shows signs of landing, and continued growth in product adoption (30% custs already adopted at least product launched from 2021) is optimistic. 22% of customers are currently adopting security products, which bodes well for their pivot having just done this not long ago.
They added a number of features, as well as those related to AI, and found that cost optimisation is becoming less of a talking point, and more on how new use cases can be applied through Datadog. Market punished the stock for it, but with the pace of product improvement, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was just a temporary dip.
Roku
Topline for current quarter and next showed a surprised beat, owing to success in scaling accounts (through unit sales) internationally. This had a downward drag on their ARPU, since newly acquired customers don’t have revenue yet (i.e. have not seen the ads). Verticals such as Tech and M&E (which I think are huge contributors) still remained challenged for the second half of the year, though other verticals like discretionary or healthcare are seeing more resilient ad spend.
In their TV sales, they continue to see share gains, which bodes well for future LTV capture, whilst we finally see a glimpse of how big The Roku Channel is, relative to the other streamers. TRC was 1.1% of total US TV viewing in May, which represents 3% of streaming hours, in line with Peacock and close to HBO Max (quite impressive)! They also added NFL channels, and shoppable ads all through Roku pay, allowing for a watch-click-buy seamless process all on the Roku platform. Good quarter, and will likely improve its growth once the economy improves.
Sea Limited
The company stepped back on the gas pedal this quarter by signaling that they’ll be increasing investments on the livestreaming / short-form video scene in eCommerce (Shopee). Some buy-side analysts think that that might be due to competitive pressures from Asia / Brazil (e.g. TikTok / Lazada), and that is a valid concern. Cash burn (amongst others) was what accelerated the downward trend in top/bottom line in 2022, and to resume doing so to maintain its competitive advantage tells me that their moat is shrinking at a concerning rate (otherwise they wouldn’t have felt the need to increase investments).
Cash burn was what brought the stock down earlier, and will be what suppresses the stock price in the near future. That said, its Gaming and Financial Services are seeing green shoots in metrics, so that bodes well in terms of cash generation to fund investments in Shopee. For me personally, Sea Limited still has some work to do to get out of the hole that they’re in, thus there’s no rush in getting more exposure (even at low prices).
DCA Strategy
Endowus
So far so good…
Tiger (Uranium ETF)
Finally catching up on SP500…
Mining
Comes and goes with BTC price…
Crypto Portfolio Holdings
Due to me being away half the month, my crypto portfolio breakdown will have to do for this month’s crypto section. Nothing much has changed, though I took profit from RLB at ~2x, raising cash in the hopes of buying lower.
Conclusion
Once again, thank you, to each and everyone of you, that bothered to read / skim / scroll through the entire article. The flow for the article was quite abrupt but that was because I didn’t have time to frame my thoughts into meaningful prose.
One can expect the format of this article to return to scheduled programming next month, so do keep a lookout for that as well :) See you next month!
Cheers,
Joey
Congrats on another month ser! 🫡 by any chance, are you from the frogman unit? Cause one of my colleagues just came back from this week as well from his reservist